Although Armenia is geographically isolated, economically weak and sparsely populated, American leaders are considering it as an important country for the United States. Since 1992, Washington has been pursuing two strategic objectives in its relations with Armenia. The first one has been to promote the settlement of the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict: the US administration is acting as a mediator in the framework of the OSCE Minsk Group. The United States is notably interested in strengthening security around the neighboring oil pipeline stretching from Azerbaijan to Turkey. Its second objective has consisted in tying Armenia to the Euro-Atlantic structures, and in encouraging its rapprochement with Turkey. One of the major stakes of the Turkish-Armenian rapprochement has been the opening of the economic borders between the two countries. Indeed, Washington wants to promote the development of a regional East-West axis so as to diversify those countries’ relations with other states than Russia and to limit Iran’s role in the region.
























Given the US interest, Armenia has, under the leadership Foreign Affairs’ Minister, Vartan Oskanian, adopted a foreign policy based on the concept of « complementarity ». As a matter of fact, the country has developed its links with the regional powers along a North-South axis. As a member of the CIS Collective Security Treaty Organization, Armenia has perceived Russia as its major strategic partner, the guarantor of its security. As for Iran, it is providing Armenia – with its only connection with the rest of the world outside Georgia. But Yerevan has also strengthened its relations with Washington. Since 1992, the Armenian government has received $1.4 billion from the US government. More recently, military cooperation between Armenia and the United States has increased, notably for the fight against terrorism. In other respects, Armenia has joined NATO’s Partnership for Peace. However, contrary to its Georgian and Azerbaijani neighbors, it has officially declared that it was not willing to integrate the Atlantic alliance. Besides, Yerevan has taken a different stance to Washington’s regarding the Iraq crisis. Indeed, its position was closer to Moscow’s oneand partly motivated by security concerns for the Armenian community in Iraq.

The Need for A New Balance

During the year 2004, it seems that Armenia, which has developed asymmetric cooperation with the US, Russia and Iran, has been under indirect pressure from Washington. In February 2004, the Bush Administration submitted to the Congress a budget request for -foreign assistance programs that would have broken the military parity between Armenia and Azerbaijan.For the fiscal year 2005, it requested to allocate $ 8.7 million military aid to Azerbaijan, and $2.7 million to Armenia. The US Administration has emphasized that it was determined to prioritize cooperation with Baku in order to fight against terrorism, promote peacekeeping operations and secure oil flows. In April 2004, it also named ambassador Steven Mann to be the special negotiator for Nagorno-Karabakh and Eurasian conflicts. As such, it showed its intention of reactivating the mediation process, paralyzed by the inertia of both sides.

Consequently, Armenia has strived to set new strategic balances in its foreign relations. At several occasions in the year 2004, it has demonstrated its commitment to taking part, like Georgia and Azerbaijan, in the operations supported by NATO. In February 2004, a platoon of 34 Armenian soldiers was deployed in Kosovo and joined the multinational brigade East led by American general Tod Carmony. Moreover, in September, President Kocharian officially offered to send 46 Armenian medical doctors, drivers and engineers to Iraq, in the framework of the Polish-led Center-South multinational division. According to the Armenian Defense Minister , Serge Sargsian, this decision, which was highly debated throughout the nation, was aimed at breaking Armenia’s regional isolation. Probably because of these measures and the reactions of the Armenian diaspora living in Washington, the American Congress eventually passed a budget that restored military parity between Yerevan and Baku.In FY 2005, it will allocate an equal $5 million foreign military aid to Armenia and Azerbaijan.

Coordinating the different partnerships

Contrary to the strategic objectives prioritized by the United States, Armenia has also strengthened its partnership with Iran, especially in the field of energy. According to the US Department of State, Armenia was to satisfy its energy demand by opting for the development of domestic sources such as the hydroelectric power or the wind power. In May 2004, Yerevan preferred to finalize its agreement with Tehran for the supply of Iranian gas to Armenia for a period of 20 years. Toward that end, the Armenian government officially started in November 2004 to build a gas pipeline that will connect the two countries. This event was celebrated as an historical day for the republic as it gives Armenia the tangible prospect of a strengthened energy security . Owing to this agreement, Yerevan will become able to import gas from another country than Russia. Thhis deal will also alleviate the effects of the Nagorno-Karabkh war, and particularly the economic blockade by Turkey and Azerbaijan.

In parallel to those decisions, the Russian-Armenian partnership, contested in the economic sphere, was not criticized in the military field. A part of the Armenian political elite and media, notably from the opposition, deplored that the investments made by Russian companies inside the republic were not high enough to bring about economic development. Besides, the relations between Russia and Armenia got deteriorated after the Beslan attack. When Vladimir Putin decided in September 2004 to close the border between North Ossetia and Georgia, he shut down the only road connecting Russia and Armenia. As a consequence, Armenia has been getting deprived of supply essential to the workings of its economy. On the other hand, the military cooperation between Yerevan and Moscow has not been questioned. On the contrary, it was asserted by the joint military exercises organized in Armenia in August 2004.

Without any agreement on the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, Armenia does not have much room for developing its foreign policy. In order to ensure its security, the country has to deal with the USA, as well as with Russia and Iran. For the Armenian government, the diplomatic challenge will consist in finding ways to preserve Armenia’s interests in the framework of evolving relations between Washington on the one hand and Moscow, Tehran and Ankara on the other hand. As for the US government, it will probably give increasing importance to the Armenian domestic and foreign policies in order to lift the last obstacles that stand in the way of realizing its strategic objectives in the Caucasus.