The Minsk Group also highlights that 2006 is a key year as there are no elections scheduled for Armenia and Azerbaijan. Such an opportunity hasn’t occurred in five years and will not arise again for quite some time – elections are due to take place in 2007, 2008 and 2009.

The mediators of the Minsk Group, which is jointly presided over by France, the US and Russia and which has been carrying out diplomatic efforts for more than 10 years in an attempt to resolve the Nagorno-Karabakh battle that pits Baku against Yerevan, still hope that the two parties, which have agreed to further meetings, will eventually approve the plan that they have proposed to reconcile two principles, which, at first glance, may appear contradictory. One is the principle of territorial integrity which would apply to the Azeri districts surrounding Nagorno-Karabakh that are currently controlled by Armenian forces, who would then withdraw from the area. The other concerns the rights of the people within the territory of Nagorno-Karabakh to self-determination.

According to the mediators, a compromise on this basis, on 11 February, would have allowed the possibility of a framework agreement being signed during the summer and the deployment of an international peace force during the second half of 2006. In a first stage, Armenian forces could then have withdrawn from five out of seven Azeri districts towards the end of 2006 or the beginning of 2007. “But in Rambouillet, each of the two parties tried to gain a bit more than proposed by the mediators, so becoming less open to the demands of the other party”, explains Bernand Fassier.

Baku and Yerevan inflexible?

Azeri president Ilham Aliyev demands that Armenian troops withdraw quickly from all of the seven districts, while Armenia, represented by president Robert Kotcharian, believes that the fate of Kelbadjar, which is important in terms of security, should only be decided after the vote on self-determination by the people of Nagorno-Karabakh. And while Yerevan demands that this popular vote takes place as soon as possible, Baku believes that it should be delayed as much as possible.

Furthermore, adds Bernard Fassier, “Warmongering propaganda from the Azeri authorities, at the highest level, will not exactly give Armenia the impression that Azerbaijan is ready to collaborate.” For a long time each of the two sides felt that time would prove to its advantage. The Armenians thought that the international community would “forget” that their troops were occupying Azeri and Azerbaijan believed that once the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceylon (BTC) pipeline was up and running, a landslide of oil money would allow it to fund new war efforts. Baku managed to forget, however, that the BTC would be the first victim of any war…

Bernard Fassier and the two other joint chairs of the Minsk Group, Steven Mann of the US and Yuri Merzlyakov of Russia, are set to meet on 6 March in Washington to examine the possible ways in which to further negotiations.