The initial incentive came from the foreign office and was elaborated by planning staff. The initiative is in favour of an ENP Plus but also underlines Russia’s position in the neighbouring countries and Central Asia. The German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier promoted these proposals by publishing them in the German daily Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung. Chancellor Angela Merkel and her close collaborators are distancing themselves from the foreign office by trying to avoid a ‘Russia first’ approach while setting priorities on Central and Eastern Europe.

The project is comprised of three pillars: an ENP Plus, the revision of the Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the European Union and Russia (which expires in November 2007), and a strategy for Central Asia.

Germany has long been a driving force for eastern policy within the European Union (EU), as Berlin’s current obligations and interests in shaping EU relations with Eastern Europe are related to the legacies of World War II, including the post-war existence of two German states; Germany’s post-reunification geographic position as a Central European player and finally Germany’s economic position in the region.

For these reasons, other EU members and in particular the Central European EU member states have expected Berlin to give priority to the challenges in Eastern Europe upon taking over the EU presidency in the first term of 2007.

Proposals for an ENP Plus

The overall goal of the ENP Plus is to implement attractive and realistic policy dedicated to promoting security and stability in the countries directly bordering the EU. Unlike the concept of the European Commission, which includes both the Eastern European and the Mediterranean neighbours, the German foreign office focuses on Moldova, Ukraine and Belarus, under the hypothesis of future democratic transition, and the South Caucasus countries of Georgia, Armenia and Azerbaijan.

One of the main issues in the new strategy is how to transfer part of the acquis communautaire to the ENP countries, particularly those sections covering overlapping interests such as the internal market, energy, transportation and justice and home affairs.

Furthermore, the strategy also proposes a concerted broadening of institutional cooperation with the potential of including the ENP countries in the EU’s decision-making process. Other institutional frameworks such as the Black Sea Initiative (BSI) or the Community of Democratic Choice should be part of the ENP Plus. The proposal calls for new institutional arrangements, although EU membership is not an option due to the internal problems of European integration.

The German foreign office also suggested adjusting the budgetary balance between the East European and Mediterranean neighbours which is currently at 30 and 70 percent, respectively. Both single EU member-states and international financial organizations should offer additional contributions to the ENP budget.

Finally the strategy proposes a partnership of modernization targeted towards Eastern Europe. Concentrating the ENP on the eastern neighbourhood also indicates a shift of priorities towards the South Caucasus, which was initiated after Rose Revolution in Georgia.

On 4 December 2006 the European Commission presented a strategy paper titled “Strengthening the European Neighbourhood Policy”. This approach picks up on a number of crucial aspects such as visa facilitation, enhanced political dialogue, supporting Black Sea cooperation and obtaining additional funding through single EU member states and the World Bank. Nevertheless, the Commission proposal does not follow the German concept to concentrate the ENP on Eastern Europe and to open new institutional relationships with the neighbouring countries.

By taking Germany’s proposal for an ENP Plus seriously, the Commission has indicated the high degree of influence that Berlin holds over the discussion of drafting a new eastern policy. At the same time, one might also assume a Commission intention to put elements of Germany’s initiative into a European framework, thereby limiting additional strategic initiatives.

Maintaining the strategic partnership with Russia

The second pillar of the eastern policy agenda during the German EU presidency is dedicated to Russia as a strategic partner. Unlike the previous government under Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, the “Russia first” approach is no longer the dominant strategy.

Chancellor Angela Merkel is running a balanced approach between personal contacts with Russian president Putin on the one hand and taking the interests and concerns of the Central and Eastern European countries seriously.

German foreign minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier worked in Schröder’s administration as the chancellery’s chief of staff before being appointed as new foreign minister and his policy does to a certain extent continue the former government’s approach.

Overall the foreign office is pursuing an intensive and serious policy towards Russia, particularly with regard to common interests in energy and security. Therefore one of the priorities of Steinmeier’s “neue Ostpolitik” follows the principle of “Wandel durch Verflechtung” – essentially meaning change by increased interdependence with Russia based on reliability in energy and security cooperation.

However, Poland’s decision to block the negotiation of a new Partnership and Cooperation Agreement (PCA) between the EU and Russia exemplifies that national interests still diverge profoundly on this issue.

A strategy for Central Asia

The foreign minister’s official visit to all five Central Asian states in November 2006 can be interpreted as a signal that increasing efforts in forging a common region and bringing Europe and Asia closer together is a new priority in Germany’s foreign policy.

In comparison with Russia and the United States, the EU is strategically underrepresented in Central Asia. German and European interests greatly converge and include guiding democratic transition, supporting good governance, the rule of law and human rights, energy security and a broad spectrum of hard and soft security issues.

Specific policy steps, on which Steinmeier has proposed placing a particular emphasis, are a EU Agency for Stability in Central Asia, a European Education Initiative, a regular dialogue on human rights and a rule of law initiative.

Germany, the only EU member state with embassies in all five countries, is in favour of increasing EU awareness of Central Asia, for instance by establishing a regular political dialogue and opening EU Commission delegations in the region. Supporting the development of market economy structures, free trade and investment is also in Germany’s strategic interests.

Conditions for a successful “Ostpolitik”

An ENP Plus, a new level of cooperation with Russia and bringing Central Asia on the European agenda are part of the external policy priorities of the German EU presidency.

If one wants to critically assess this policy, one has to consider the cleavages among the partners of the grand coalition. The most sensitive aspect is to what extent German policy makers remain interested in continuing a “Russia first” approach and how the three agendas of Russia, Central Asia and the ENP countries can be combined under one initiative.

Beyond Germany’s national input in this policy, a reality check also depends upon the conditions for alliance building between the different European partners involved. In the readjustment of EU-Russia relations, one has to take the critical position of the Central European member states seriously. Initiatives going beyond the current ENP would be supported by Poland and Lithuania, while the Southern EU members remain favourable to a balance between the Mediterranean and East European agendas.

While during the six months of the German presidency new initiatives might be started, one should also consider with which partners the development of a new eastern policy can be maintained, in order to avoid losing momentum. Strategic pressure and positive developments first and foremost related to democratic breakthroughs from the countries concerned are the most important requirements in laying the groundwork for a successful EU Eastern policy during the German EU presidency.