In the course of one night, Saakashvili’s government has done a lot more than oppositional groups and Russia combined to damage its international image. A shock wave has agitated Georgia after the scandalous allegations of murder and corruption voiced by former defense minister Irakli Okruashvili against President Saakashvili and his team on the TV channel Imedi on September 25 and the quick answer of the government.

Okruashvili has accused President Saakashvili of wanting to order the murder of businessman Patarkatsishvili, owner of Imedi, and of covering his uncle Temur Alasiana’s corrupt deals. The government was quick to react and Okruashvili was arrested on charges of money-laundering, extortion and abuse of power on September 27. He is accused of extorting shares in the mobile phone company Geocell and of having provided exclusive construction contracts to a friend’s company, while serving as Defense Minister.

It is the timing of the arrest just two days after Okruashvili’s TV interview that leaves no doubts on the political motives behind it, even if the influential deputy of the ruling party and government’s virtual spokesman Giga Bokeria stressed that the threat of an imminent arrest pushed Okruashvili to publicly voice these allegations. Anger in the Georgian population has triggered mass protests in front of the Georgian parliament on September 28. Oppositional groups have formed an alliance and called for anticipated parliamentary elections.

Can anyone emerge as a “winner”?

The government’s reaction is puzzling to outside observers. With this arrest, President Saakashvili and his team are entering a risky political game that may threaten the government’s popularity, while boosting oppositional groups. It will be hard to remove the impression that the fight against corruption, on which the Georgian government has staked its legitimacy, is used selectively in Georgia with the aim of targeting potential opponents.

Most importantly, this arrest is a severe blow to Georgia’s international image and could even jeopardize Georgia’s prospects of NATO accession in 2008, at a time when the most important criteria on which Georgia’s performance is being judged is no longer defense reform, but rule of law and democracy.

Considering the high risk it takes, many observers are asking why Saakashvili’s team has not preferred the safer tactic of ridiculing Okruashvili’s claims. The government’s reaction to Okruashvili’s revelations has proved them true in the eyes of many Georgians, even if Okruashvili has not substantiated them with any proofs, and turned Okruashvili into a hero.

The question that remains hanging in the air is in whose interest have these events unfolded? The facts disclosed by Okruashvili have been sensational, because he is a former member of the governmental team and can claim to have insider knowledge. But this position is a double-edged sword, as it is also his weakness. Okruashvili puts himself in a position of having to justify why he has not acted before, while creating the suspicion that he might have been involved in some of these events. This is also the weakness at the core of the new alliance of oppositional groups, which are in a paradoxical situation of using Okruashvili as a new hero after having criticized him in the past.

The motives that have driven Okruashvili to voice these allegations are unclear. Okruashvili has certainly anticipated his arrest. Some argue that he had the possibility of making the same revelations from London. In the case he is condemned to prison, his political career is damaged, as he runs the risk of not being eligible. Another question still unanswered is who Okruashvili is really targeting with these revelations.

The Liberty Institute clan as a target

Okruashvili has publicly directed his allegations against Saakashvili in a kind of epic battle between two former allies. It is the first time that Saakashvili is being directly attacked. Until now, he has tried to stand above political disputes and scandals, letting Giga Bokeria doing the job of refuting the critics. He tried this way to retain some of his popularity of the revolutionary days.

However, it is not clear whether Okruashvili was really targeting only Saakashvili, given the vagueness of his accusations. He may even have indirectly pressed Saakashvili of getting rid of an influential circle inside the government, composed of former members of the NGO Liberty Institute. In an interview with the newspaper Rezonansi on September 27, Okruashvili advised Saakashvili to “make a political U-turn before it's too late” and “kick-out his dirty” inner circle. Okruashvili was certainly targeting the Liberty Institute clan with these words, which has become increasingly powerful after his members have managed to sideline former Prime Minister Zhvania’s followers and other figures such as Okruashvili himself. The Liberty Institute clan counts Giga Bokeria, Interior Minister Vano Merabishvili and the Minister of Education Kakha Lomaia as members.

What the members of this clan lack is a solid power base and some degree of popularity with the electorate, as for instance former Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania or Okruashvili himself, who were always considered serious potential opponents to Saakashvili. Revelations about the actions of this clan reflect the popular mood, which is increasingly critical of the influence of personalities such as Bokeria and Merabishvili, holding them responsible for the political and personal intrigues, such as the murder of bankier Sandro Girgvliani in 2006, which seem to dominate Georgian politics. Officials from the Interior Ministry have been arrested for the murder, while opposition groups have accused Merabishvili of being involved in it.

In this light, Okruashvili can be seen as a type of “suicide bomber” of Georgian politics, trying to blow up his former companions in the government with him in an explosion of revelations and scandals. Rather than a politician or a future president, Okruashvili seems to have the ambition of becoming a “new hero” for Georgians.

The quick reaction of the government, which many observers judge much too hasty and lacking reflection, can be seen as a proof that the governmental team is not as unified and strong as it seems. In the context of changing alliances and in the absence of solid power bases, it is uncertainty and fear that seem to inspire some of the government’s decisions. As long as power is not institutionalized in Georgia, political intrigues will dominate the political scene and remain the only mechanism to retain power.

A chance for Georgian democracy?

The third actor in this confrontation between government and opposition is the Georgian people and one may ask whether Georgian democracy will emerge as a winner from these attempts to shed light on the dark zones of Saakashvili’s government.

Okruashvili’s arrest has been a catalyst for popular discontent with the government style. Grave allegations that could never be backed by oppositional groups until now and were only rumors have suddenly been publicly exposed, including promises of revelations on the murders of Prime Minister Zurab Zhvania and banker Sandro Girgvliani.

This battle between former allies shows also that the fight against corruption is still the platform on which political fights are played and the Soviet practice of collecting and unveiling compromising material against potential opponents is still well established.

Many hope that this political battle will have a healthy outcome for Georgian democracy. The benefits of a parliamentary system for Georgia, a real checks-and-balances system and a real independence of the judiciary are issues that are being currently debated. However, such allegations and the use of kompromaty may also have the effect of moving once again the political debate away from the real problems that Georgia is facing, namely economic challenges and social issues.

Okruashvili’s speech was symptomatic of a tendency among Georgian politicians to score easy points with the Georgian electorate with references to Saakashvili’s “inner hatred” of the Orthodox Church - the Orthodox Church being the most respected institution in Georgia. Georgia’s territorial unity was also a prominent issue in Okruashvili’s statements, as he criticized Saakashvili’s disapproval of his plan to regain control of South Ossetia, which he presented as a unique chance, and criticized the government’s current approach to the conflicts in Abkhazia and South Ossetia. During his interview, Okruashvili said only a few words on economic and social reforms.

Many Georgians appear to believe that the way to democracy in Georgia is not a battle of ideas and debates over solid political programs capable of attracting electors, but consider that the first step is to definitely get rid of the corrupt clans and personal intrigues that have ruined the country and jeopardized its chances of success for so many years. However, Okruashvili’s allegations and the government’s reaction may also have the effect of discrediting the entire political class, increasing the gap between Georgian citizens and their representatives. It remains to be seen if any winner will emerge from the current political crisis or whether Georgia can only lose in this battle, where “the hero of the day” is “yesterday’s tyrant” and vice-versa.