According to official results announced by the Georgian Central Electoral Commission, Saakashvili has obtained an absolute majority of 53,4% of the vote. He is trailed by the main opposition leader Levan Gachechiladze, who obtained more than 25%. Badri Patarkatsishvili, a wealthy businessman-cum-wild-card candidate, garnered only single-digit support. According to these results, the incumbent has secured a second public mandate without a runoff.

The opposition, however, is protesting the official results, and has alleged serious irregularities in the election process. They say that many people were able to vote without showing an identity card, there were irregularities in the process of counting votes and numerous polling stations suspiciously recorded support for Saakashvili that neared 100%, including a 90% overall level of support for the incumbent among minority groups. Opposition parties have asked for a second round of elections or threaten to not recognise the legitimacy of Saakashvili’s re-election. On January 13th about 50.000 demonstrators gathered after a call from the opposition coalition to protest the results and refuse Saakashvili’s victory. Negotiations are now underway between Saakashvili and the opposition.

In spite of the opposition's clamouring, the main international election watchdog, the OSCE/ODIHR, has released a report deeming the poll “in essence consistent with most international standards for democratic elections, but significant challenges need to be addressed urgently.” Echoing the OSCE’s cautiously positive assessment, Western states have depicted the elections as an achievement for Georgia. The US congratulated the people of Georgia in warm terms. The EU High Representative for the Common and Foreign Security Policy Javier Solana was more cautious, nevertheless hailing the Georgian elections as “truly competitive”.

Numerous observers supported these positive assessments by underscoring that for the first time, the outcome of the election was not known beforehand, some pre-election opinion polls even showing a significantly higher level of support for the opposition candidate.

Diminished popular mandate

While international headlines tend to assert that Georgia has rather successfully passed this democratic test, the main loser from the election is, paradoxically, its winner. Saakashvili now faces the prospect of dealing with an organised and motivated opposition movement keen on restricting his freedom of action in the political realm. Furthermore, he has lost a lot of the popular support he formerly enjoyed.

A telling sign of Saakashvili’s diminished popular mandate is the regional structure of support for the President. Results show that Gachechiladze carried the day in almost all districts of Tbilisi. In the affluent Vake district, Gachechiladze obtained close to 50% of the vote, compared to a mere 28% for Saakashvili. This is an alarming sign for the President-elect, as it shows that the “Saakashvili brand” has lost the support of the most dynamic, prosperous and forward-looking strata of Georgian society.

Four years ago, Saakashvili was not only a consensual figure, but also the exponent of a reformist edge. Now, his win relied largely on less informed voters that may have been swayed by the dynamic campaign Saakashvili ran. He spared no efforts to reach electors in Georgia’s most remote rural areas by helicopter during his campaign.

The overall vote Saakashvili’s main rival, Levan Gachechiladze, obtained is impressive given the difference in popular impact of the two candidates. While Saakashvili is an adept politician, strong leader and charismatic figure, Gachechiladze’s personality is much less prominent. Indeed, the opposition candidate ran on what can be called an essentially parliamentarian platform, promising to renounce his powers in favour of the Parliament if elected. The fact that a non-candidate was able to garner more than 25% of votes cast shows that anti-Saakashvili momentum is quite strong in Georgia.

Support for NATO

A further sign of Saakashvili’s diminished support became apparent in the referendum on joining NATO that was held alongside the presidential elections. Few people doubted that Georgians would come out strongly in favour of NATO membership. Yet, when all ballots were cast, figures of support did not emerge as strong as expected. Some 61% of Georgians showed support for joining NATO.

On the surface, correlating support for Saakashvili with enthusiasm for joining NATO finds little proof. Opposition groups can hardly be considered as anti-Western or, for that matter, anti-NATO. It is difficult, then, to argue that opposition voters are opposed to integrating Georgia in the Euro-Atlantic community.

Yet, Saakashvili has been a vocal supporter of Georgia’s NATO membership aspirations. The United States has backed him and he has received a more or less unqualified endorsement from the entire community of Western states. Losing faith in Saakashvili could then translate into disillusionment with the countries that supported him and, at times, turned a blind eye on his mistakes.

A weakened mandate for Saakashvili means that he no longer enjoys unbridled power. With parliamentary elections to follow in April, the president must expect a tough challenge from a strengthened opposition, leading to a shift from national consensus to genuine pluralism and real political competition. Gachechiladze and the opposition as a whole ran on a platform aimed at restricting presidential powers and bolstering Parliament's clout. This issue will loom large in the upcoming general elections.

The January 5th election results could be a sign that Georgia is beginning to shift away from the paradigm of ‘exceptional’ politics that followed the Rose Revolution, and toward a more ‘normal’ environment of competitive politics. It remains to be seen how the different actors will manage the challenges this new political reality creates.